Pennock's Perspective: Navigating the 2024 Presidential Election's Impact on Digital Marketing
Impact on the Digital Marketing Landscape
As we approach the 2024 presidential election, Pennock anticipates significant shifts in the digital marketing landscape. Political campaigns will increase their digital ad spending, creating a more competitive environment. The highest impact is anticipated to take place from September through early November, with fluctuations during debate periods and the final run-up in the last week before November 5. In order to navigate these landscape shifts, we have provided a detailed breakdown of the expected impacts and recommendations for digital campaign strategies:
Cost Increases:
Meta Ads (Facebook, Instagram): Historically, CPMs have increased by 20-30% during election seasons. For the 2024 election, we can expect a similar or slightly higher increase, around 25-35%.
Google Ads: CPCs for Google Ads tend to rise by 15-25% during election years. For 2024, anticipate a 20-30% increase, especially for competitive keywords.
Programmatic Ads: Programmatic ad costs can increase by 15-20% during election periods. For 2024, a 20-25% rise in CPMs is anticipated.
TikTok Ads: Given the growing popularity of TikTok, CPMs could increase by 30-40% during the election season, reflecting higher demand from political advertisers.
Competition:
Meta Ads: The competition for ad inventory will intensify, with a projected increase in auction activity by 30-40%.
Google Ads: Expect a 25-35% increase in competition for both search and display ads, driven by political campaign spending.
Programmatic Ads: Programmatic platforms will see a 25-35% increase in demand, as political campaigns leverage these channels for targeted advertising.
TikTok Ads: Expect a 35-45% rise in competition for ad placements, particularly targeting younger demographics.
Content Saturation:
During the 2020 election cycle, digital ad spending by political campaigns reached nearly $2 billion. The 2024 election is expected to see even higher expenditures, potentially exceeding $3 billion.
According to Forrester, overall digital ad costs could increase by 20-30% across major platforms during the election year, driven by increased political ad spending.
Recommendations for Budget Adjustments
Increase Budgets & Flexibility:
Allocate an additional 20-30% to your digital advertising budget to remain competitive.
Plan for flexible budgeting to shift spending based on cost fluctuations and competition levels.
Redistribute Budget Across the Marketing Funnel:
Top-of-Funnel (TOF): Consider reducing TOF spend by 10-15% during peak political ad times. Political ads will dominate awareness campaigns, so it may be more cost-effective to focus efforts elsewhere.
Final Campaign Push - The last two to three months leading up to Election Day (November 5, 2024), typically from September through early November.
Debate Periods - Weeks surrounding major presidential and vice-presidential debates, often in September and October.
Election Day and Immediate Run-Up - The final week before Election Day, where ad spending reaches its peak.
Middle-of-Funnel (MOF): Maintain or slightly increase spending to ensure continued engagement and nurturing of leads. This could offset any drop in new leads due to reduced TOF spending.
Bottom-of-Funnel (BOF): Increase BOF budget by 15-20%. With higher competition and costs, it’s crucial to focus on converting leads who are already familiar with your brand and closer to making a purchase. This ensures that your ad spend is more efficiently used on high-intent audiences.
Recommendations for Content Strategy
High-Quality Creative:
Invest in engaging, relevant content to capture audience attention amidst political noise. Allocate 10-15% more budget to content creation.
Update creative assets frequently to combat ad fatigue and maintain engagement.
Content Personalization:
Tailor content to the specific interests and behaviors of alternative audiences.
Use dynamic creative optimization to deliver relevant ads to different audience segments.
Machine Learning Campaigns During the Election Cycle
How Machine Learning Campaigns Will Be Affected
Increased Competition & Cost:
Bid Pressure: Like manual campaigns, machine learning campaigns like Performance Max and Advantage+ will see an increase in auction prices due to the surge in political ad spending. This is likely to result in higher CPC and CPM.
Budget Efficiency: Performance Max and Advantage+ will need to work harder to allocate budgets efficiently in a more competitive landscape, potentially leading to increased costs to maintain the same performance levels.
Ad Saturation and Fatigue:
Consumer Overload: With the influx of political ads, consumers may experience ad fatigue, becoming less responsive to all types of advertising, including non-political ads.
Algorithm Adaptation: Machine learning algorithms will need to adapt to changing engagement patterns, focusing on more engaging ad formats and creative strategies to capture attention.
Targeting Shifts:
Audience Overlap: Political ads will target a broad spectrum of demographics, leading to increased competition for the same audiences.
Precision Targeting: These campaigns will need to refine targeting parameters to avoid heavily saturated segments, potentially identifying less contested niches or interests. Keep a close eye on the segments automated campaigns are spending heavily on to determine if manual campaigns may be a stronger option during the election cycle.
Recommendations for Navigating Machine Learning Campaigns
Budget Adjustments: Dynamic Budgeting: Allocate budgets dynamically, increasing spend during non-peak political ad times and reducing it during high competition periods.
Enhanced Creative Strategies: Compelling Content: Invest in creating more compelling, high-quality content to stand out amidst the political noise. Use engaging visuals, interactive elements, and personalized messaging. As noted in our content strategy section, anticipate needing a higher number of assets during this time to combat increased ad fatigue.
A/B Testing: Continuously test different ad creatives and formats to identify what resonates best with your audience during this period.
Recommendations for Targeting
Audiences Likely to See Increased Competition
Young Adults (18-34):
Reason: Both major political parties aim to engage younger voters who are active on social media platforms like Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok.
Impact: Higher CPMs and CPCs on these platforms as political ads compete for their attention.
Swing States/Regions:
Reason: Political campaigns will focus heavily on swing states and key battleground regions.
Impact: Increased competition for geo-targeted ads in states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
Issue-Based Segments:
Reason: Campaigns will target users interested in key issues such as healthcare, the economy, and social justice.
Impact: Higher costs for keywords and interests related to these topics on Google Ads and social media platforms.
Alternative Audiences to Target
Older Adults (35-54 and 55+):
Strategy: Focus on demographics less targeted by political campaigns. Older adults are often overlooked but can be valuable customers, especially for beauty and lifestyle brands.
Channels: Utilize platforms like Facebook and email marketing, which have strong engagement from older demographics.
Niche Interest Groups:
Strategy: Target niche interest groups related to specific hobbies, lifestyles, or professional interests. These groups may see less competition from political ads.
Examples: Beauty enthusiasts, fitness aficionados, eco-conscious consumers, etc.
Channels: Leverage specialized forums, niche social media groups, and influencer partnerships.
Regional Targeting Outside Swing States:
Strategy: Focus on regions and states less impacted by political ad saturation.
Examples: States with traditionally stable political leanings or lower electoral significance.
Channels: Geo-targeted campaigns on Google Ads and social media.
Behavioral & Contextual Targeting:
Strategy: Use behavioral data to target users based on their online activities and purchase behaviors rather than broad demographic categories.
Examples: Recent purchasers of beauty products, frequent online shoppers, etc.
Channels: Programmatic advertising and advanced targeting options on social media platforms.
Loyalty Programs and Existing Customers:
Strategy: Increase efforts to engage existing customers and loyalty program members, who are less influenced by political advertising.
Channels: Email marketing, SMS campaigns, and exclusive social media groups.
Overarching Targeting Thesis
Diversify Audience Targeting: Shift focus from highly competitive segments to alternative audiences with less political ad saturation.
Implement advanced targeting techniques to reach niche and behavioral segments effectively.
Enhance Data Utilization: Use first-party data to create detailed customer profiles and refine targeting.
Leverage CRM data to identify and target high-value customers and lookalike audiences.
Recommendations for Improving 360° Marketing
Email Marketing
Benefits During the Election Cycle:
Consistency: Email marketing remains consistent and unaffected by political ad saturation.
Engagement: Personalized and targeted email campaigns can drive high engagement rates and maintain customer interest.
How digital ads can support email marketing:
Lead Generation Campaigns: Implement or increase the budget for lead generation campaigns before peak political ad times to grow your email database at a lower cost-per-lead (CPL).
Organic Social Media
Benefits During the Election Cycle:
Engagement: Consistent posting and engagement on social media can maintain brand presence without relying on paid ads.
Authenticity: Organic content often feels more authentic and less intrusive than paid ads, resonating better with audiences.
How digital ads can support organic social media:
Boosting Key Posts: Use paid ads to boost high-performing organic posts, ensuring they reach a larger audience.
Promote Social Contests: Run social media contests or giveaways and use digital ads to promote them, driving engagement and participation.
Creator, Influencer & Partner Marketing
Why We Recommend It:
Authentic Reach: Influencers provide an organic and authentic way to reach your target audience, which can be more impactful than traditional ads.
Trust and Credibility: Influencers often have a strong rapport with their followers, making their endorsements more credible.
Benefits During the Election Cycle:
Less Ad Competition: Influencer content is less affected by the rise in ad costs and competition on traditional platforms.
Engagement: Influencers can create engaging content that resonates well with their audience, driving higher engagement rates.
How digital ads can support influencer marketing:
Amplify Reach: Use digital ads to amplify influencer content, reaching a broader audience and increasing its impact.
Retargeting: Retarget users who have engaged with influencer content, nurturing them further down the marketing funnel and avoiding the high cost of TOF audiences.
Podcasts and Streaming Services
Why We Recommend It:
Growing Audience: Podcasts and streaming services have seen significant growth, offering access to engaged and loyal audiences.
Lower Saturation: These platforms typically have lower political ad saturation, providing a less competitive environment.
Benefits During the Election Cycle:
Engaged Listeners: Podcast and streaming service audiences tend to be highly engaged, making ads on these platforms more effective.
Niche Targeting: Many podcasts and streaming services cater to niche audiences, allowing for precise targeting.
How digital ads can support streaming/podcasts:
Promote Podcast Episodes: Use digital ads to promote your own podcast episodes or those featuring your brand, driving listenership.
Integrated Campaigns: Create integrated marketing campaigns that combine podcast ads with digital ads, reinforcing your message across channels.
SMS Marketing
Why We Recommend It:
Direct and Timely: SMS marketing allows for direct, timely communication with your audience, ensuring messages are seen promptly.
High Open Rates: SMS messages have significantly higher open rates compared to emails, making them a highly effective communication tool.
Benefits During the Election Cycle:
Less Competition: SMS marketing is less affected by the influx of political ads, providing a more stable channel for communication.
Immediate Engagement: SMS can drive immediate engagement and responses, ideal for time-sensitive promotions or announcements.
How digital ads can support SMS:
Grow Subscriber List: Use digital ads to encourage users to sign up for SMS alerts, offering incentives such as discounts or exclusive offers.
Cross-Promotions: Coordinate SMS campaigns with digital ad efforts, using ads to reinforce messages sent via SMS.
Election Seasons Impact on Beauty/Lifestyle Brands
Ad Fatigue: During the peak political ad times, users will be bombarded with a high volume of political content. This saturation can lead to several issues for beauty and lifestyle brands:
Decreased Attention: With the influx of political ads, consumers might tune out non-political ads, making it harder for brands to capture attention.
Lower Engagement Rates: Ad fatigue can cause a drop in engagement metrics such as click-through rates (CTR) and interaction rates, as users become overwhelmed and desensitized to the constant stream of ads.
Increased Skip Rates: Users might skip non-political ads more frequently, especially on platforms like YouTube and TikTok where skipping is an option, further reducing the impact of advertising efforts.
Brand Safety: Ensure that a brand’s ads do not appear next to controversial or inappropriate content. The polarized nature of political ads can pose specific risks:
Content Association: Ads appearing alongside polarizing political content can inadvertently associate the brand with specific political views, which can alienate segments of the audience.
Consumer Perception: The perception of a brand can be negatively affected if its ads are displayed in politically charged environments, potentially leading to backlash or a loss of trust.
Ad Placement Monitoring: Brands will need to closely monitor where their ads are placed, using tools to ensure that ads do not appear next to contentious political content.
Engagement: The heightened competition and ad saturation during the election will necessitate more compelling and interactive content:
Higher Creative Standards: Brands will need to elevate their creative efforts to stand out amidst the political noise. This includes using eye-catching visuals, strong storytelling, and interactive elements.
Personalization: Tailored content that speaks directly to the audience’s interests and needs will be more effective. Using data-driven insights to personalize ads can help maintain engagement.
Interactive Content: such as polls, quizzes, and augmented reality (AR) experiences can help engage users more deeply and differentiate the brand from political ads.
Value-Driven Messaging: Emphasizing brand values and creating authentic, value-driven content can resonate more with audiences and foster a deeper connection during a period of high ad fatigue.
Recommended Spend Schedule
As we approach the 2024 presidential election, the digital advertising landscape will become increasingly competitive, with political campaigns driving up costs across all major platforms. To help our clients navigate this period and maintain their current performance, we've outlined a recommended budget adjustment schedule. These increased budgets, calculated as a percentage rise from a typical weekly spend, are designed to keep your brand competitive amidst the heightened competition and elevated costs during the election season.
While the recommended budget adjustments in the table provide a general guideline, it's important to note that these numbers may vary based on your brand's niche, industry, and target audiences. At Pennock, we can work closely with your brand to determine the correct budget adjustments tailored to your unique situation. If increasing spend is not feasible, we recommend reallocating budgets toward the alternative marketing channels mentioned earlier, such as email marketing, influencer collaborations, and organic social media strategies. Our team can help tailor your digital campaigns to support these channels effectively, ensuring your brand remains competitive and engaged with your audience during the election season.
Conclusion
The 2024 presidential election will create a more challenging digital advertising landscape. At Pennock, we recommend increasing budget flexibility, refining targeting strategies, and diversifying marketing channels to navigate this period effectively. By preparing for a 20-40% increase in ad costs and competition, investing in high-quality content, and leveraging alternative marketing channels, beauty and lifestyle brands can maintain effective engagement with their target audiences during the election season.